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Mar 14 2014

Euro Climbs: Yen Rallies Most in Seven Weeks on China, Ukraine

Rate Range Projection by Bank


Next week 100.50- 102.50
Next 3 months 100.00 - 105.00


The below is a topic from market news


The Federal Reserve meets next week amid bets it will cut monthly bond purchases another $10 billion.  The euro rose for a sixth week, the longest stretch since 2007, and reached the highest in more than two years. The ruble slid versus most major peers as the U.S. and Europe threatened more

sanctions over Crimea if Russia moves to annex the Black Sea peninsula.


The yen gained the most versus the dollar since January as demand for haven assets surged amid the biggest dispute between Russia and western nations since the Cold War and signs of instability in China’s economy. The yen gained 1.9 percent, the most since the five days ended Jan. 24, to 101.36 per dollar this week in New York. Japan’s currency advanced 1.6 percent to 141.03 per euro. Europe’s shared currency rose 0.3 percent to $1.3914 and touched $1.3967, the highest level since October 2011.


“We started the week focusing on China, primarily, but the second half the week, the source of risk aversion shifted to Ukraine,” Vassili Serebriakov, a New York-based foreign-exchange strategist at BNP Paribas SA, said by telephone. “The yen is the obvious beneficiary here playing the traditional safe-haven role.”


Deutsche Bank AG’s Currency Volatility Index, based on three-month implied volatility on nine major currency pairs, jumped for the first week in a month. It increased to 7.63 percent from a 15-month low of 7.14 percent on March 12.


Deflation Risks


ECB President Mario Draghi said its level is “increasingly relevant in our assessment of price stability.” The euro fell as much as 0.4 percent on March 13, the most in 10 days, after the European Central Bank signaled it’s monitoring gains in the currency for deflation risks. Earlier the currency had approached $1.40, the highest in more than two years. Draghi said in a speech in Vienna that “any material risk of inflation expectations becoming unanchored will be countered with additional monetary-policy measures.” “Our base-case scenario is that the euro breaks $1.40 in the coming weeks,” said Serebriakov of BNP Paribas. “Draghi’s comments reduce the risk of a large overshoot of the euro. It makes say $1.42 less likely, but $1.40 is still very much in the cards.” The ECB kept its key interest rate unchanged March 6, damping speculation policy makers would introduce further monetary stimulus. 

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